When Conflict Disrupts Aviation: Why Planning Remains the Industry’s Greatest Safeguard

The recent events in the Middle East are a stark reminder of how rapidly things can change in aviation and that even the best laid plans can be compromised by unforeseen events. Literally overnight, the safe haven status of Middle Eastern countries such as UAE, Qatar, and other locales suddenly had those reputations shattered as bombs dropped in Dubai and Doha. The physical impact of the strikes has reached some of Dubai’s most famous landmarks. Videos showing the iconic Burj Al Arab skyscraper engulfed in flames and smoke following an attack. Additional footage showed the luxury Fairmont The Palm hotel was caught in a fire after debris from an intercepted Iranian air attack crashed near its entrance.

According to aviation consultants Cirium in London, in the first 14 days over 46,000 flights were cancelled in the Gulf region. Jet A fuel was up 60% in the same period (as of the writing of this article IATA now reports the increase at 110%), and war insurance premiums for flights, shipping container boats and other transport logistics were up 500%. WingGX reports that over 140 private jets are grounded in the Middle East, as charter demand is up 350%, and peak Dubai to London charter rates are in excess of $275,000 and rising as we close out the first month of the war. In the first three weeks of the war, commercial airlines lost over $55 billion in market value. A first-class ticket aboard Korean Air from Washington to Seoul rose from $6500 to $18,500 at the end of March.

As in many other unforeseen situations around the globe, both private and commercial aircraft and airlines stepped in to provide emergency evacuation flights that were unscheduled to help get people in the Middle East to safe destinations outside the war zones. Commercial airlines such as Lufthansa, Swiss Air, Emirates and others flew in special evacuation flights in coordinate with several Government efforts from the UK, the US and other EU nations with military transport options. Those with financial means quickly found that private aviation also offered them flexible access to aircraft out of harm’s way even if that meant absorbent high prices. Private air solutions also include US led non-profit groups known for extracting US citizens from conflict zones. One such organization is Tampa-based nonprofit, Grey Bull Rescue, which is helping evacuate Americans from the Middle East, following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Made up of ex-special forces personnel, the group puts boots on the ground in high-risk conflict zones and rescues US citizens caught on the ground with no option of escape. Overall, the aviation sector quickly came to the rescue in shuttling people to safety.

All of this translates in one of the key components of aviation which is planning. Whether it’s an airline with thousands of employees and customers worldwide or a small flight department with a few key personnel right down to the small owner pilot of a small turbo prop, planning is always at the forefront of aviation. Recent events show that while you can’t plan for everything, that should not stop you from attempting such. Any plan is better than no plan.